National innovation capacity (NIC) is key to achieving sustainable development. However, research on the link between NIC and sustainability remains limited. Based on data from 131 countries spanning 2015–2024, this study uses structural equation modeling to explore the impact mechanisms and dynamic characteristics of NIC's effects on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This paper specifically analyzes the pathways of NIC and its constituent elements (institutional, knowledge, and technological innovation capacity) in relation to SDGs under different target dimensions (social, economic, and environmental sustainability). The results show NIC promotes directly to SDGs with a contribution value of 0.286; however, the effects on economic, social and environmental SDGs vary significantly, with contribution values of 0.348, 0.103 and 0.193, respectively. Institutional, knowledge, and technological innovation capacities have indirect effects on SDGs through their interactions. Heterogeneity analyses reveal these effects are heterogeneous across countries according to geographic location, population density, income level, and economic development stage. Sensitivity analyses show enhancing each unit of NIC improves SDGs 9, 8, 7 and 11 by 0.727, 0.665, 0.624 and 0.536, respectively. SDGs 8, 9, and 11 are the most sensitive to institutional and technological innovation changes, while SDGs 5, 14, and 15 are insensitive to these innovation elements. Further analysis suggests NIC can enhance the collaborative achievement of the SDGs by mitigating trade-offs and amplifying synergies. Moreover, institutional innovation most effectively promotes synergies, while knowledge and technological innovation are more effective at alleviating trade-offs. The findings can inform both theoretical research and policy making for sustainable development.

该文章以“Achieving sustainable development through National Innovation: Evidence from 131 countries”为题，发表在《Environmental Impact Assessment Review》